With 2025 nearing to a close, WTM London’s new event director Chris Carter-Chapman shares his travel predictions for 2026 – including a number of trends spotlighted throughout this year’s show (which saw a record number of visitors and exhibitors alike)
The travel industry is gearing up for an exciting decade. Over the next ten years, it’s expected to outpace the global economy, growing at around 3.5% a year compared with 2.5% for global GDP.
By 2035, travel could be generating more than $16 trillion worldwide – nearly 12% of the global economy, showing just how central travel will remain to people’s lives and the broader economy.
For consumers in both advanced economies and emerging markets, travel spend remains high, despite increasing living costs in many parts of the world.
Urban revival
Global city destinations are experiencing particularly strong growth for international tourism. This reverses the shift away from cities and towards rural destinations during and immediately after the pandemic.
London remained a strong pull for international visitors, receiving 10.9 million visitors this year, with a growth of around 23% expected between 2025 and 2030. Meanwhile Paris received 10.5 million visitors in 2025 and is expecting 11% growth, and Barcelona received 6.3 million visitors with a sizeable 33% growth forecast.
This reflects a recovery in business travel (typically concentrated in urban areas), renewed interest in cultural tourism and events, and improving connectivity with urban destinations. This compares to overall growth of 5% for all country destinations. This outperformance extends to the world’s 100 largest city destinations – a pattern that is expected to continue through to the end of the decade.
Gig-tripping is experiencing an encore
One of the big trends for 2024 shows no sign of slowing down, with the role of big events, such as Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, continuing to be a driving force in travel decisions.
Live events, including sport and music events, feature prominently within this growth area, and the live events industry is set to grow by nearly 6% per year over the next five years, outstripping expected industry-wide growth. At this year’s WTM London, we saw destinations actively encouraging major touring artists to host events in their cities following the successes of a series of high-profile concerts.
Global momentum
There are clear growth opportunities within international leisure tourism too, with arrivals projected to increase from around 1.5 billion this year to more than 2 billion by 2030. Over the next five years, an extra 150 million households globally are expected to be defined as travelling class, with sufficient disposable income to undertake international leisure travel.
In Europe, solid but slower growth is expected over the near-term, reflecting the size and maturity of the sector. Aided by strong connectivity and seamless travel policies, the region benefits from more intraregional activity, compared with other parts of the world, accounting for around 80% of international leisure nights in 2025.
Middle East resilience
Though a smaller share of global travel, the Middle East is outperforming other regions despite some geopolitical instability. Major investments in tourism, infrastructure, and promotion in GCC countries, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, support this growth and diversify economies away from fossil fuels.
Hosting major sporting and music events, including the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2034, has boosted the region’s profile. This mirrors the ongoing global trend of ‘gigtripping,’ with events like Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour across multiple continents influencing travel decisions.
Off the beaten track
Travellers seeking new, memorable experiences and value for money are increasingly drawn to alternative destinations. Countries such as Albania, parts of Central and Eastern Europe, and Central American nations like El Salvador have seen rapid growth and are expected to attract more international visitors.
Scandinavian destinations, including Norway and Sweden, have seen relatively strong growth in recent years, due to their offering of nature based and wellness experiences, as well as fitting with the ‘cool-cations’ trend, despite being more expensive than many other destinations.
Rising Asian demand
Asia’s outlook is strong, partly due to pent-up demand from China. By 2030, Chinese outbound leisure spend is projected to increase 93% from 2025, benefiting nearby countries such as Vietnam and Thailand. Strong economic growth in India is also driving potential, with some 70 million Indian households expected to join the travelling class over the next decade.
To Conclude
The travel landscape does present a mixed picture. While there are prospects for growth in most regions, the immediate outlook in North America is varied, with inbound arrivals to the United States set to decrease 6% in 2025 – meaning that 2019 peak levels are unlikely to be regained until 2029. While the demand for travel is strong, economic and geopolitical headwinds are an immediate concern.
New trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration are adding to business costs and are now passing through into higher consumer inflation, which is undermining income and spending power. Ongoing uncertainty about the level of tariffs being imposed poses headaches for the industry in the near-term.
*Research was conducted by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company and a leading global economic forecaster and provider of quantitative analysis.
